"Andrew Luck has been magnificent"

The 2011 version of the Discover Orange Bowl is here and it looks to be a good one. The Orange Bowl will be a classic showdown between the fourth ranked Stanford Cardinal (11-1, 8-1 Pac-10), who finished second in the Pac-10, and the 14^th ranked Virginia Tech Hokies (11-2, 8-0 ACC) who won the ACC. Stanford is the favorite at -3.0. Let’s look at the game as I offer my free pick for the Orange Bowl.

Quarterbacks

There are two premium QBs in this game—Tyrod Taylor for Virginia Tech and Andrew Luck for Stanford. Luck is more disciplined and accurate but Taylor has real playmaking potential in that he is a dual threat who excels when forced to the outside.

On defense, the Hokies have to offer blanket coverage on Cardinal receivers. That will be difficult for them. As far as Taylor is concerned, the Cardinal “D” must contain him, keeping him in the pocket. Once again, this will not be an easy task.

Offensive Lines

When it comes to O-line, Stanford has the edge. They do a much better job of protecting their QB and they play as a unit, opening holes for the running game. Luck has been sacked less than 10 times this season.

The Virginia Tech offensive line has struggled this year. They have improved but the front men did allow 26 sacks this season. The Hokies need to be able to run in order to be competitive in the Orange Bowl. Can their O-line open up holes against a very good Cardinal run defense?

2011 Orange Bowl Difference Makers

The big difference maker in this game is Stanford’s head coach Jim Harbaugh who in four short years has recreated and resurrected the Cardinal football program. Here they are in a BCS Bowl game after being a laughingstock in the Pac-10 for years. His smarts could win this game.

Free Pick 2011 Discover Orange Bowl

I think this will be a very close game. I’m going with Stanford at -3.0. The final for the 2011 Discover Orange Bowl will be Stanford 35 and Virginia Tech 30. That’s my free pick for the 2011 Orange Bowl.

"Rivers could have a big night against the 49ers."

Tonight’s free pick is for the Thursday Night Football game between the San Francisco 49ers (5-8) and San Diego Chargers (7-6). Both teams are hoping to stay in the playoff hunt. The Chargers are at -9.0 and the over/under is at 44.5. Here is my free pick.

Offense

For this free pick, you have to consider the fact that the Chargers have a very fine passing game led by QB Phillip Rivers. Rivers is having an excellent year as he commands the NFL’s second best air attack.

The 49ers offense is ranked 20^th in the NFL. Alex Smith leads the team and has been inconsistent throughout the season. This is a team that has a tough time scoring.

Defense

The Chargers’ defense plays a big part in this free pick. They are ranked first against the pass and fourth against the run. They should be able to shut down the 49ers, giving Rivers and the rest of the offense plenty of chances to score.

Free Pick

I like the San Diego Chargers at -9.0 and the under at 44.5. I’m looking at a score of 27- 10.

"Watch out for St. Mary's tonight!"

There’s a game on the West Coast tonight that despite a -25.5 point spread looks promising. The University of California Riverside Highlanders (3-5) are at the St. Mary’s Gaels (7-2). The Gaels are favored at -25.5. Here’s how I see this free pick.

Stats and More Stats

The Gaels are 4-1 versus the spread and the Highlanders are 2-2. Riverside is scoring 4.5 fewer points than they are allowing. St. Mary’s always seems to put a great scoring team on the court and this season is no exception. They are sinking a bit more 51% of their shots from the floor, making them fourth in the nation, while the Highlanders are connecting on just 42%, which places them 241^st in the country.

The Gaels are 10% more efficient from the charity stripe and the field. St. Mary’s also has a boatload of assists and very few turnovers. They should outscore the Highlanders by plenty and also shut down their offense.

Free Pick

I am going with the Gaels at -25.5. They play tonight a 10 pm ET. This is a four-unit bet for me. That’s my free pick.

"Metrodome becomes the new Snow Bowl"

The Sunday game that had the New York Giants visiting the Minnesota Vikings ran into a major snafu when the Metrodome roof started doing what looked like an imitation of a Morton’s salt commercial. (When it rains, it pours Morton Salt.) With the collapse and deflation of the Metrodome roof, the Vikings became a team without a home.

The decision was to reschedule the game for Monday at the domed home of the Detroit Lions. Will that change of venue give the Vikings more bite? It appears, at least according to bookmakers, that it will give them less as Minnesota went from +3.0 to +4.0 when they lost their home field. Here’s my free pick.

Offense

Okay, the Giants are much more stable on offense. This is partly due to the fact that they have been more reliable when it comes to getting the ball down field.  Although the Vikings have a solid running game, New York is better when it comes to both the running and ground attack.

Plus, the Vikings are in trouble at the QB spot. Favre is injured and it’s doubtful that he will play. If he does play, he’ll be doing so with an injury that will hamper his ability to perform. That means that Tarvaris Jackson may see action. Jackson has played sparingly this season, putting up some bad numbers.

Defense

Both teams are fairly equal on defense. But I think the edge goes to the Giants for a few reasons. The Vikings will most likely look to their running game and become one-dimensional if Jackson plays. If Farve is in the game, he will be susceptible to mistakes and more injury. Both scenarios give the New York “D” and upper hand. The Vikings may have trouble on defense due to the fact that the Giants put a diverse offense on the field that is good when carrying and throwing the ball.

Free Pick

I’m going with the New York Giants who are at -4.0 in tonight’s extra Monday night football game. The look like a sound four unit sports bet.

"Navy is in control."

The Midshipmen of Navy have gone into the locker room in command of the game with the score standing at 24-7. The second half point spreads are up and here’s the way it looks for those looking second half action.

Control

Navy is in control of the game and with QB Ricky Dobbs at the helm, they should continue to dominate what is an average Army defense. The Midshipmen are not only running through the Army ranks, they are also hammering them with their aerial assault. Dobbs already has two touchdown passes.

The Army pass game does not exist and they are being outgained by Navy two-to-one.

Free Pick

Expect the same from the Midshipmen as they continue to take it to the Black Knights in what is the 111^th meeting between these two clubs. Take Navy in the second half at -1.5.

The Indianapolis Colts (6-6) meet the Tennessee Titans (7-5) tonight for a matchup that features two teams that are on losing streaks. The spread has the struggling Colts at -3.0 and the over/under at 45.5 points. Here are a few things to consider.

Over/Under

The last nine of ten games between these two teams have been under. Tennessee doesn’t have much of an offense but can hold other team’s offenses at bay. Still, the Colts will score about three TDs. This will probably be a 24-14 game. That’s well under 45.5. Go with the under on tonight’s game.

The Point Spread

I like the Colts at -3.0 for a few reasons. Here they are.

• The Manning factor. Every game is big and he’s a big game player. This is an elimination game. He won’t let his team be eliminated tonight.
• Solid receivers for the Colts means yards and points.
• Titan defense is best against the run. The Colts aren’t running.
• Colts will give up run yardage to the very fine Titan ground game but they will also cause a few fumbles and notch some picks.
• Colts are a better team even with all of their injuries.

Free Pick

Once again—take the under at 45.5 and, yes, go with the Colts at -3.0.

Shhhh! It's our secret tip!

I’ve got an NBA free pick for tonight. It’s a West Coast game so you have plenty of time to place a bet. I also have some early point spreads that I like for week 14 of the NFL season.  Here we go.

Wizards Versus Lakers

The Lakes are at -12.5 against the visiting Wizards. Los Angeles shoots, runs the floor and rebounds better than Washington. The also have a deeper bench and are a much better from the three-point arc. There’s also the issue of depth. I’m looking at a 115- 95 win for the Los Angeles Lakers.

NFL: Week 14 Early Spreads

Based on what happened this past week, matchups and stats, I like the following early lines. Go for them. They may not last long.

Green Bay -6.5 visits Detroit

Okay, the Lions have done pretty well despite the fact that they only have two wins. They have been competitive in many games and gave the Bears a scare last week. This meeting will not be a repeat of this past week’s performance. Take Green Bay at -6.5.

Cincinnati +9 travels to Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh should win but not by nine. Cincy has a solid passing contingent and they played the Saints tough this past week, upsetting the spread and almost upsetting the Saints.

New England -3 at Chicago

With last week’s performance by the Patriots and by the Bears, I’m thinking this is a 10-point win. The Bears can’t score and the Pats defense is looking good especially versus the Bears’ strength on offense – the run.

Secret Tip

Shhhhh! You are missing a prime sports betting opportunity. Boston Bruins goalie Tim Thomas is 12-1 versus the puckline when winning this season and 12-3 overall. He’s become a no brainer for savvy and not-so-savvy sports bettors.

"Will Palmer have time to pass today?"

Okay, sports bettors, here’s a game for you today. The 8-3 New Orleans Saints are at -6.5. They play the 2-9 Bengals. This game is my first free pick today. Let’s see how it breaks down for those looking to bet a few units.

Past Meetings

I love history, don’t you? The history of these two teams encompasses three meetings. In 1996, 2002 and 2006, the Bengals beat the Saints. That’s right, the Saints are 0-3 against the Bengals. But that’s ancient history. That last Cincinnati win was Brees’ first year with the Saints. Long before this team won the Super Bowl.

On Offense

Okay, if you’re betting on this one pay attention here. The addition of Terrell Owens hasn’t done much except given the Bengals something no other NFL team has—two wideouts who both have their own reality shows. The other wideout is, of course, media-hog Chad Ochocinco. Together the two showboats have 12 TDs. Owens has eight of those.

QB Carson Palmer has notched 19 touchdown passes but he’s also thrown 15 interceptions. His passer rating is 78.5 as he’s completed 59.5% of his throws. He’s been sacked 20 times.

The running game features Cedric Benson, who has fumbled more times than he has scored. He has five fumbles (lost four) and four TDs. That’s not a running game, it’s a liability.

For the Saints, Brees is having another fine year, throwing for almost 300 yards per game, completing 68.6% of his attempts and earning a rating of 92.7. He has a solid and deep squad of receivers, including Robert Meachem (4 TDs, 14.6 AVG), Marques Colston (4 Tds, 11.9 AVG) and Lance Moore, who leads the group with 6 TDs. The team has 23 passing TDs.

The running game is secondary to this team. Chris Ivey is the main man on the ground with 3 TDs, 4.8 YPC and two lost fumbles.

On Defense

The Bengals have 13 INTs and have forced 10 fumbles, eight of which they have recovered. Cincinnati’s pass rush is tepid. They have a dozen sacks. Brees should have plenty of time to setup and throw.

But Palmer will probably be rushed today. New Orleans has been tough against the pass because they do have a sound rush. The team has 20 sacks and they’ve forced 22 fumbles and recovered half of those. They only have seven picks, but that number is offset by the sacks.

Turnovers

Early in the season, the Saints were prone to turnovers. They need to play disciplined ball. If not, they could lose this one. If the Bengals are within three in the fourth, that will be a key factor. I do not expect that to be the case.

livebetting.net Free Pick

In the last two games, the Bengals have lost by 16 or more points and in four of the last five, the Saints have won by 10 or more. Plus, New Orleans has played well against teams similar to Cincinnati.

The point spread is -6.5 with the Saints favored. I’m going with four units on the Saints to win and two units on the over with the over/under at 44.5.

If New Orleans is behind at the half by 10 or less, then bet on them winning the second half. Put two units on that bet, but only if the Saints are behind. That’s my free pick for the start of the day.

Illinois (6-5, 4-4 Big Ten) travels to Fresno State (7-4, 5-3 WAC). This contest features two teams that are both fourth in their respective conferences. Although the spread originally had the Fighting Illini at-7, it now has them at -5. Here’s my free pick, sports bettors.

On Defense

In their highly competitive conference, the Big Ten’s Fighting Illini are better than average against the pass and the run. The club is giving up 24.2 PPG.

The Fresno State Bulldogs, who are in the weaker WAC, have given up an average of 29.7 PPG. That is 5.5 more points than Illinois. In the WAC, they are a little better than average on “D” and most effective versus the rush.

On Offense

Illini QB Nathan Scheelhaase is a dual threat to pass and run. The Illini excel at the run as Scheelhasse has had four contests where he has rushed for 95 or more yards. He has thrown 16 touchdowns, 8 interceptions and been sacked just 17 times.

The primary running threat for Illinois is Mikel Leshoure who has racked up 1,371 yards and 13 TDs. He’s averaged 5.9 YPG. Together Leshoure and Scheelhaase are capable of 200-plus yards per game.

For Fresno State, senior quarterback Ryan Colburn has been good for 18 touchdown throws. While tossing 9 INTs. But Colburn has heavy legs. He’s not a threat to run and he’s been sacked 30 times.

Bulldog running back Robbie Rouse has 8 TDs and 1,097 yards. However, more than 70% of his rushing yards have come in four games and he has struggled in the last two, gaining just a little over 150 total.

My Free Pick is Illinois

Okay, sports bettors, here’s my free pick for this one. I think the Fighting Illini defense will really hassle Colburn. Look for them to notch about four sacks and a pick or two. They will also contain Rouse. The Illini will run, run and run some more.

This free pick takes Illinois at -5. Final score Illinois 27 and Fresno State 17. Three units on this one.

"Will Rondo play tonight?"

The Boston Celtics (14-3), who lead the Atlantic Division and Eastern Conference, host the West’s Portland Trail Blazers (8-9). The Blazers are fourth in the Northwest Division. At home, the Celtics are 7-1 and the Trail Blazers are 4-6 away. The Celtics are favored at -7.

Rondo and Company

It’s true that point guards Rojon Rondo and Delonte West are both ailing, with Rondo being day to day for the Celtics, but the team still has a lot of talent and a very tough defense.

Rondo may play and if he does he’s still capable of a double-double. If he cannot, shooting guard Rae Allen can supervise the backcourt. The Celtic frontcourt is stellar and deep. Overall, the Celts have been averaging about 100.8 PPG and holding opponents to 92.9.

Portland

For Portland, Marcus Camby has been averaging over 10 RPG, while shooting guard Brandon Roy has been tossing in 18.4 PPG. Portland has been scoring 95.2 PPG, while they have allowed 96.2 PPG. This does not bode well for visitors.

Free Pick

With a solid defense, big home court advantage and a deep bench, Boston takes this one by around 10. I’m putting three units on the Celtics.