The Allure of the Big Payout in Live Sports Betting

Live Betting Offers Some Massive Cash Back on Big Plays

When engaging in live sports betting, depending on the sport, you may be offered six or more wagering opportunities on a single play! And some of those bets will pay big. But it’s always important to realize that the chance of hitting many of these wagers is very remote. Let’s consider one alluring live sports bet with which you’ll be presented when betting on the NFL.

NFL Turnover Prop

The NFL turnover prop is a good example of a bet that offers a very large payout. Unlike many of the other play propositions that are listed anywhere from around +200 to +400, this one often comes in around +1800. If you bet $100 on the next play being a turnover, you’d win $1,800.

Crunch Some General Stats

There are 256 games played in the regular season. Each of those games has an average of 125 plays. During the 2009 NFL season there were a total of 861 turnovers. That means there was an average of 3.36 turnovers per game. Thus, on average, 2.7% of the plays resulted in a turnover. Now you can see why that prop offers such a huge payout.

Crunch for Specific Stats

Let’s look at some specific stats. In 2009, the team that caused the most turnovers was the Green Bay Packers, they had 30 interceptions and 10 fumble recoveries. The next best team was the New Orleans Saints who totaled 39 turnovers.

The worst team in terms of turnovers was the Detroit Lions, who were at minus-18. The Lions were especially vulnerable on the pick as they gave up a total of 20 interceptions. They had 28 turnovers total. But Chicago gave up 27 interceptions and 7 fumbles, thus they led the league with a total of 34 turnovers. The Bears also caused 28 turnovers.

Thus a game where the Bears and Lions played or the Packers and either the Lions or Bears would offer the best chance of turnovers on both sides of the ball (although the Green Bay offense rarely gave up the ball).

The Bears, on both sides of the ball, were involved in close to 4 turnovers per game. The Lions caused 21 total turnovers and had 27 for a total of 48, which meant they were involved in 3 turnovers each contest. Thus a game between Chicago and Detroit pits two teams that average a total of 7 turnovers per game on offense and defense. That’s about twice the NFL average.

Is this a Good Bet?

Still, even with a Lions and Bears meeting, only about 6% of the plays would result in a turnover, which would be seven to eight plays. This is still not a good bet.

If you want to make this wager, do it when defenses seem to be able to swarm the quarterback, causing enough confusion to make the quarterback either fumble the ball or toss a pick. Otherwise, stay away from it.

When all is said and done, the NFL turnover prop is a bad bet. Make it rarely, only when you really have some cash to spare and when the stats and situation seem to be in your favor.