Live Sports Betting—Ninth Inning Bets

Some Options for Ninth Inning Wagering

The ninth inning of a baseball game is a time for the specialist to come in if the game is close or one club is ahead. That specialist’s job is to shut down opposing offenses. The specialist is, of course, the “closer.” The closer in baseball is a guy whose job is to get three outs as quickly as possible. He comes in, blows away opponents and everyone goes home happy. At least those who are on the winning side do.

The closer is responsible for creating some unique situations in live sports betting. Bettors can certainly exploit this opportunity. There are three key aspects you need to consider when wagering on the closer in the ninth.

Situation

The situation you’re wagering on is when the closer for the home team comes into the game in the ninth and he’s in a save situation. That means his team is ahead by no more than three runs. Additionally, he’s entering the inning with no one out.

The Pitcher

In determining if you’re going to wager on this situation, you’ll need to know the relief pitcher’s stats. Look these up before the game starts. Most teams have just one closer, so that makes it easy for you to know on whom to focus.

Here are the stats for the best closer in MLB for 2010—Heath Bell of the San Diego Padres.

These stats cover are good through August 14 of the season and cover 115 games. Bell has made 50 appearances and pitched a total of 50.2 innings. These are your foundation figures. The number of appearances is average for a quality starter. He’s not being over or under used. The innings are almost perfect. (Perfection would be 50 IP.) These are both excellent signs.

The number of hits, earned runs, home runs and walks he’s allowed are fine. There’s no indication of any weakness. He has 64 strikeouts in 50 innings, which is better than a K an inning. Again, this is solid.

Now let’s look at the statistics that tell the tale. In 50 games, he’s made 38 save appearances and has blown just three. He’s 35-of-38 in saves. That a save percentage of 92%. Additionally, he has five wins and no loses. Thus, when he’s come into a ball game, the Padres have won 40-of-50 times.

Finally, his WHIP (Walks and Hits per Innings Pitch) stands at 1.24 and he has an ERA of 1.78. These are also exceptionally sound. Bell looks like a good bet.

The next step is to assess how the pitcher has done against the team he may face that day. Bell has three blown saves against three separate teams—San Francisco, Houston and St. Louis, but he’s also had numerous saves against each team. His last blown save was 22 games ago!

He may face San Francisco in his next game. He’s had six saves against them and the one blown save was at the start of the season. San Francisco has scored one run against Bell and they have seven hits.

Giants’ batters who have done best against him over the years are Aaron Rowand (.333 BA, 1 RBI), Pat Burrell (.375 BA, 2 RBI) and Aubrey Huff (.750 BA, 0 RBI). Burrell and Juan Uribe have one homer each when facing Bell.

Best Bets

Bell is a good bet versus the Giants. Overall, he’s been able to shut them down. If he comes in and it’s a save situation bets to take include: San Francisco’s run total at the end of the inning being unchanged. Put three units on that. Also, wager on each hitter, unless they are one of the top three mentioned above, getting out. You may want to bet on each hitter striking out no matter who comes up. There’s a one-in-three chance that at least one batter will go down on strikes. Place one unit on that bet.

To summarize, these are your bets and units:

Giants’ run total will be the same—3 units
Batter getting out—1 unit each
Striking out—1 unit on each batter

If after a batter of two, Bell seems to be having a bad outing stop betting on him.

Ninth Inning Closers

Premium closers are good bets in live sports betting. No, they won’t come through 100% of the time, but the good ones manage to save or win a game 85% of the time or better. If you do your research ahead of time, you’ll be ready for when that closer comes in and, hopefully, he’ll be ready too.