NFL Prop Betting

Propositions are the only wagering opportunity that bookmakers routinely lose money on. In case you’re not familiar with prop betting, a prop bet is a wager made on anything other than a point spread, moneyline or total. For NFL football betting common examples include – Will there be a score in the first 7:30 of the game? Will either team score three unanswered times? Will Michael Vick throw an interception? Again, these are just common examples; online bookmakers www.5dimes.com, www.intertops.com, and www.bet365.com combine to offer dozens of unique propositions for each game of the NFL season. As I mentioned in the intro, Bookmakers often lose money on this form of wagering. In this article I’ll explain why this is the case and then cover prop betting tips and where to bet props online.

Reason Prop Bets are Profitable

Let me go ahead and start with answering the question “Why do bookmakers often lose money on prop bets?”. The answer to this is simple. Sportsbooks accept millions of dollars in wagers on point spreads, moneylines, and game totals. During the NFL season there are 13-16 games each weekend that a bookmaker stands to profit handsomely on if he manages his positions well. Meanwhile, proposition are a much smaller market, these offered as a novelty wager, mostly for the purpose of player retention. With the needs to create lines for hundreds of props each week, a bookmaker will often use a very simple formula such as weighing each team’s stats with league averages to create a rough line. From there he keeps he keeps the betting limits down to $200 to $500 maximum per bet, and adjust the lines as action comes in. In turn there are three reasons props can be profitable:

1) Bookmakers don’t spend much time creating odds for each individual prop. It is therefore very well possible for the punter to have analyzed a certain prop bet far more than anyone with the betting site, or any of his peers wagering on the line.

2) With small betting limits, serious sports bettors eventually graduate from props. While there’s nothing wrong with taking advantage of bets with $5 to $30 +EV each, many professional bettors simply don’t have the time. This creates more opportunity for the lower limit professional to build his bankroll or increase his season profits.

3) Propositions attact fan biased. On my NFL betting page I covered the reasons fading the public doesn’t work, as fans don’t influence betting lines on main markets such as the point spread, total and moneyline. In prop betting the opposite occurs; novice bettors often do shift these lines; this creates value for the smaller limit professional.

Line Shopping is the First Key to Beating Props

One the easiest strategies for beating NFL props involves comparing lines at several online sportsbooks. Doing so I’ve routinely found situations where I know for a fact a bet is +EV without needing to pull any stats or research them. An example came last NFL season where there was a prop on total sacks in a New York Giants game. At dozens of sites I shopped including Bookmaker, 5Dimes, BetOnline, Sportsbook and others – the line for under 3.5 was between -110 and -120. Amazingly I eventually found Bodog had under 4 -105, which was no question a +EV wager. Another example came in a Miami game where Intertops had Chad Henne’s total passing yards at o241 -110 and TheGreek had u284 -110. Here I made a $550 to win $500 wager at each site effectively giving me 20 to 1 ($50 to win $1,000) that his passing yards will between 241 and 284, which I’m certain hits often enough to be a profitable bet.

Common Sense Prop Betting Tips

There are few things that should be common sense when it comes to prop betting, but just to be certain I’ll go ahead and cover them here.

1) Don’t bet on props that can’t be beaten over the long term. For example, a popular Super Bowl prop is the coin toss flip. Betting heads or tails at -105 is a suckers bets. While these bets can bets can be fun, if your goal is to make money prop betting, you should avoid any props that are not beatable long term.

2) Be careful of bad lines – When shopping props if you find a line that is so far off it seems too good to be true, it’s best to check with the site it is offered with before wagering on it. This advice is critical, as what could happen is you end up in a no win situation. If you wager and the bet loses it will of course be a loss, however if you wager and it wins the bet might get voided as having been a bad line. So again, be very careful of any lines that look too good to be true. When it doubt, phone the betting site, or send them an email, to confirm the line is correct before wagering on it.

3) Check that your wagers are graded correctly – while this can happen anywhere, www.5dimes.com is highly reputable betting site with a notorious track record incorrectly grading props. This relates to the fact that it’s not uncommon to find four hundred or more props on a given game at 5Dimes. With so many to choose from it very could be possible, that you’re one of just a few people to have wagered on a given prop. If they happen to grade this prop incorrectly as a loss when it should have been a win, it just might turn out no else reports it. While you should check your tickets for all forms of online wagering, it is especially important to check them when prop betting.

Best Sites for NFL Props

Many online sportsbooks offer NFL props only on the Monday night game, where a select few offer props for every game of the NFL season. I’ll start by listing the reputable sites who offer the later.

5Dimes.com – 5Dimes is no doubt a leader in NFL prop betting. Here you’ll find literally hundreds of props for each and every NFL game, including many not offered at any other online betting site. If a prop exists not only will you find it at 5Dimes, you’ll more than likely find it with far lower juice. The result is aggressive line shoppers will generally make more than 50% of their prop wagers at www.5dimes.com.

Bookmaker.eu – Bookmaker offers between 10-15 props per NFL game, though this isn’t common knowledge. The reason most miss Bookmaker’s props is that they tend to open them for betting about 1-2 hours before game time, and then close them about 20 minutes before kickoff. While early bettors and last minute bettors might not know props even exist at Bookmaker, those who do find them will often spot some serious value.

Intertops.com – Intertops offers the same 20 prop bets for all games of the NFL season. Their juice tends to be higher than other betting sites, but for whatever reason they are slow on their line moves. To sum it Intertops is somewhat a sleeper, you could go several weeks without finding a prop line worth betting and then find a certain week where they have 3-4 offers with far more value than other betting sites.

Bet365.com (no US players) – Bet365 has a comprehensive prop betting menu that also covers all games for the NFL season. The same as intertops the juice for these is quite high, with often a -115 both sides base, but what is unique here is Bet365 takes so little action on NFL props (due to not accepting US players), sets their lines early, and then barely moves them. Those there picking off the early lines, or those later shopping for arbs against other betting sites, can find value frequent enough at www.bet365.com.

Note: Sportsbook.com is also well known for NFL props. They are also known for moderate slow pays and player complaints, so there is some risks involved using them. If it wasn’t for the risk they would be a decent site for prop betting.

Other Prop Betting Sites

Bodog.com – Bodog only offers props on select games, but is always a site worth checking. When they do offer props, some amazing value can often be found.

Pinnacle Sports (no US players) – Pinnacle offers props only for the Sunday and Monday night football games. Their juice is low so you can often find some great value shopping these again www.5dimes.com and other online sportsbooks.

Other sites worth taking a peak at for prop betting lines include BetOnline, JustBet, BetDSI and Carib.

Pricing NFL Props

To be brutally honest, it would be extremely foolish for anyone betting props for a living to share how to go about pricing specific props. The reason for this should be obvious, if you understand how to handicap and price props before the betting odds come out you’re one more competitor they have to deal with beating them to soft lines. Now with this said, a few former professional have shared their knowledge and included them in books. If you want to beat prop betting consider reading the following books.

Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong – while this book was written in 2001 and some of the material is outdated, the theory and math included in it is excellent. This book will get you in the right mindset towards beating prop.

Conquering Risk by Elihu D. Feustel – This book was written by well-known SBR moderator Justin7 who used to work for Pinnacle Sports where his roll included authoring the weekly column The Pinnacle Pulse, and setting and managing prop betting lines. The book itself is not all for beginners, as it’s advanced, covers market theory and predictive modeling. It does however have some solid information inside it on prop betting and is also a great overall read for anyone aspiring to become a professional sports bettor.

In order to increase the chances you’re not disappointed by having read this long article, I’m going to go ahead and breakdown how one specific prop is priced. This way you’ll have something to work with while waiting for Amazon.com to deliver those books you just ordered.

Which Team Will Score First?

This is a simple a prop bet that is rather easy to price. First what you need to do is shop as many betting sites as possible on the first half odds in order to get a good idea of what the odds are without juice. Let’s take the case where the consensus line is Patriots -4.5 -115 Jets +4.5 -105. I happen to know off hand that 5 points is extremely rare push rate on first half line, and that -4.5 -115 / +4.5 -105 is about the same the same as -5 -110 / +5 -110. So for this, I’ll assume the betting market is predicting the Patriots will win by 5. Now if the over under on the half time is set at 21.5, then predicting a first half score is easy. I just need to come up with a score that has the Patriots winning by 5 and the total scoring 21.5 points. So with that, my prediction is: Patriots 13.25 points / Jets 8.25 points. I can now price the no-vig odds of the Patriots scoring first using the following equation:

-100 * (Favorite Score / Underdog Score)

So doing the math I get -100 * (13.25 / 8.25) = Patriots -161 so likewise the Jets are +161. Next I’d go to 5Dimes.com check the line and then go to as many other betting sites as possible looking to beat the odds 5dimes is offering. While it’s possible to find some value doing this – the even better time to use this formula is when market conditions have just changed. For example if a starting QB has an injury in practice and is out for the game, betting markets react quickly. So now you’re sitting with a new half time and new full game point spread and total, but more times than not the odds for the prop will lag behind a bit. If you understand what I’ve just covered, you can find some serious value this way.

Prop Betting for Fun
www.bookmaker.eu has one of the best live in-play betting menus for football. Here you can wager on the result of each play, set of downs and possession. For example you can bet the next play will be a run, or this set of downs will result in a punt, or the possession will end with a FG. These are some of the many in-play opportunities offered. Just keep in mind these are novelty wagers, nowhere near as easy to beat as the props I covered earlier in this article. They are however a lot of fun and can make the game more interesting for casual punters.