Gamblers Fallacy

The Gambler’s Fallacy is an important concept that all bettors need to understand. If you’re into sportsbooks and sports betting, you may very well use the Gambler’s Fallacy. If you do, it will greatly undercut your ability to profit from sports betting.

Gambler’s Fallacy Explained

The Gambler’s Fallacy is a belief that all outcomes even out and it is best illustrated by the flip of a coin. It’s commonly thought that if you flip a coin a certain number of times that it will come up heads and tails an even number of times. In other words, if I flip a coin 100 times, according to the Gambler’s Fallacy, it will come up heads 50 times and tails 50 times.

In our scenario, let’s say we flip the coin 40 times and it comes up tails 30 and heads 10. According to the Gambler’s Fallacy, at some point the number of heads will catch up to the number of tails. But this is not necessarily true.

The fact is that each flip of the coin is an action unto itself and the outcome of one toss is independent of all others. There is no reason that the number of heads and number of tails should even out. It is true that each time you flip the coin there’s a 50-50 chance that it will come up either heads or tails but that does not mean that the result will be that heads and tails occur an equal number of times. It simply means that the odds are even concerning which side of the coin is exposed after it’s tossed.

The Gambler’s Fallacy and Sports Betting

We can apply this same concept to sports betting. Each game you bet is like each toss of the coin. There’s one of two possible outcomes and the result of the first game you wager on has no effect on the result of the second and so forth.

Those who wager on sports often believe that a series of loses will be followed by a series of wins. But this is not true. A series of loses may be followed by one or two or a series of wins or even more loses. The results of your wagers have nothing to do with the law of averages or with wins and loses equaling out. If it did, then no one would ever make or lose money at sports betting. Everyone would simply break even and we know that just doesn’t happen. Some people win more than they lose and others lose more than they win and some just break even.

Adding Up Your Wins and Loses

As your wins and loses add up, you’ll need to make continuous adjustments as you refine your handicapping skills and use various tools to pick winners consistently. Don’t rely on fate, magic or a good luck charm to turn the tide if you’re losing. Reevaluate how you’re making your picks in an objective fashion in order to get on the right track. Do not rely on the Gambler’s Fallacy to save you.